MLB team owners and the players’ union continue to haggle about the parameters of getting the 2020 season off the ground. Although there have been a variety of scenarios proposed, each potential season involves playing fewer games than the typical 162. Fangraphs recently looked at the 2019 standings and examined which teams would and would not make the playoffs based on team record during different stretches during the season. Results from that exercise showed a good deal of volatility. However, a team is made up of 25 individuals and it is the performance and the sequencing of events (hits, outs, injuries, etc…) that impacts overall wins and losses. What happens when this same concept it applied to individual player performance?
In order to see the ebbs and flows of a player’s performance over the course of a full season, I examined the top five finishers in American League MVP and Nartional League MVP voting. For each player, I broke the season down into equal thirds (games 1-54, games 55-108, and games 109-162) and noted key statistics during each third of the 2019 season.
AL
Trout (1st place – 355 points)
Games 1-54
GP 51 PA 227 R 38 H 47 2B 13 HR 12 RBI 30 BB 49 SO 36 SB 6 BA .276 OBP .499 SLG .565 OPS 1.014
Games 55- 108
GP 50 PA 227 R 44 H 59 2B 11 HR 22 RBI 55 BB 33 SO 46 SB 2 BA .317 OBP .432 SLG .742 OPS 1.174
Games 109-162
GP 33 PA 146 R 28 H 31 2B 3 HR 11 RBI 19 BB 28 SO 38 SB 3 BA .272 OBP .432 SLG .605 OPS 1.037
Bregman (2nd place – 335 points)
Games 1-54
GP 52 PA 228 R 32 H 48 2B 7 HR 15 RBI 35 BB 38 SO 33 SB 2 BA .262 OBP .390 SLG .546 OPS .937
Games 55- 108
GP 52 PA 236 R 44 H 48 2B 9 HR 11 RBI 28 BB 43 SO 30 SB 2 BA .255 OBP .394 SLG .489 OPS .883
Games 109-162
GP 52 PA 226 R 46 H 68 2B 21 HR 15 RBI 49 BB 38 SO 20 SB 1 BA .372 OBP .478 SLG .734 OPS 1.230
Semien (3rd place – 228 points)
Games 1-54
GP 54 PA 245 R 33 H 57 2B 12 HR 5 RBI 23 BB 31 SO 38 SB 5 BA .268 OBP .359 SLG .404 OPS .763
Games 55- 108
GP 54 PA 251 R 46 H 63 2B 14 HR 12 RBI 29 BB 26 SO 28 SB 1 BA .280 OBP .355 SLG .529 OPS .883
Games 109-162
GP 54 PA 251 R 44 H 67 2B 17 HR 16 RBI 40 BB 30 SO 36 SB 4 BA .306 OBP .394 SLG .630 OPS 1.025
LeMahieu (4th place – 178 points)
Games 1-54
GP 49 PA 212 R 32 H 60 2B 10 HR 4 RBI 29 BB 14 SO 27 SB 2 BA .313 OBP .360 SLG .427 OPS .787
Games 55- 108
GP 47 PA 220 R 43 H 72 2B 14 HR 11 RBI 42 BB 17 SO 34 SB 2 BA .355 OBP .405 SLG .606 OPS 1.010
Games 109-162
GP 49 PA 223 R 34 H 65 2B 9 HR 11 RBI 31 BB 15 SO 29 SB 1 BA .314 OBP .359 SLG .517 OPS .876
Bogaerts (5th place – 147 points)
Games 1-54
GP 51 PA 229 R 39 H 57 2B 15 HR 9 RBI 34 BB 29 SO 45 SB 1 BA .286 OBP .376 SLG .497 OPS .873
Games 55- 108
GP 53 PA 243 R 46 H 71 2B 21 HR 14 RBI 47 BB 28 SO 42 SB 2 BA .336 OBP .412 SLG .635 OPS 1.047
Games 109-162
GP 51 PA 226 R 25 H 62 2B 16 HR 10 RBI 36 BB 19 SO 35 SB 1 BA .304 OBP .363 SLG .529 OPS .892
NL
Bellinger (1st place – 362 points)
Games 1-54
GP 50 PA 224 R 48 H 72 2B 12 HR 19 RBI 49 BB 32 SO 31 SB 7 BA .383 OBP .469 SLG .761 OPS 1.229
Games 55- 108
GP 51 PA 220 R 35 H 50 2B 9 HR 15 RBI 30 BB 34 SO 36 SB 2 BA .275 OBP .393 SLG .582 OPS .975
Games 109-162
GP 53 PA 217 R 38 H 48 2B 13 HR 13 RBI 36 BB 29 SO 41 SB 6 BA .255 OBP .355 SLG .543 OPS .897
Yelich (2nd place – 317 points)
Games 1-54
GP 47 PA 204 R 42 H 55 2B 7 HR 21 RBI 43 BB 31 SO 35 SB 10 BA .325 OBP .436 SLG .740 OPS 1.176
Games 55- 108
GP 51 PA 234 R 36 H 69 2B 14 HR 15 RBI 37 BB 28 SO 50 SB 13 BA .343 OBP .427 SLG .667 OPS 1.094
Games 109-162
GP 32 PA 142 R 22 H 37 2B 8 HR 8 RBI 17 BB 21 SO 33 SB 7 BA .311 OBP .423 SLG .580 OPS 1.002
Rendon (3rd place – 242 points)
Games 1-54
GP 40 PA 172 R 39 H 47 2B 18 HR 10 RBI 31 BB 20 SO 27 SB 1 BA .322 OBP .419 SLG .664 OPS 1.083
Games 55- 108
GP 54 PA 239 R 38 H 65 2B 12 HR 13 RBI 49 BB 25 SO 31 SB 0 BA .314 OBP .393 SLG .570 OPS .963
Games 109-162
GP 52 PA 235 R 40 H 62 2B 14 HR 11 RBI 46 BB 35 SO 28 SB 4 BA .323 OBP .426 SLG .578 OPS 1.004
K Marte (4th place – 198 points)
Games 1-54
GP 53 PA 233 R 32 H 58 2B 11 HR 12 RBI 38 BB 17 SO 42 SB 3 BA .274 OBP .330 SLG .524 OPS .854
Games 55- 108
GP 51 PA 227 R 38 H 74 2B 14 HR 11 RBI 27 BB 20 SO 23 SB 2 BA .359 OBP .419 SLG .617 OPS 1.035
Games 109-162
GP 40 PA 168 R 27 H 55 2B 11 HR 9 RBI 27 BB 16 SO 21 SB 5 BA .364 OBP .429 SLG .656 OPS 1.084
Acuna (5th place – 155 points)
Games 1-54
GP 53 PA 234 R 35 H 56 2B 6 HR 11 RBI 31 BB 25 SO 53 SB 5 BA .277 OBP .368 SLG .480 OPS .848
Games 55- 108
GP 54 PA 261 R 48 H 69 2B 7 HR 14 RBI 33 BB 26 SO 66 SB 19 BA .299 OBP .379 SLG .511 OPS .890
Games 109-162
GP 49 PA 220 R 44 H 50 2B 9 HR 16 RBI 37 BB 25 SO 69 SB 13 BA .259 OBP .345 SLG .565 OPS .910
The results indicate that a good deal of volatility exists in a player’s performance when the larger season is broken down into thirds. Based on these results, it is fair to say that if a 162 game season was shortened to a third of its normal size, there is a good chance that a player could ride a hot streak to an MVP award. Thus, lightening in a bottle is more likely in a 54 game season than cream rising to the top. In a truncated season, there is even the potential for a relatively unknown to put together a stretch that could lead to MVP hardware (ex. Kevin Maas: 1990 first 54 games – 16 homers, 30 RBI, .363 OBP, and .574 SLG.).
Other factors can also come into play that could affect a player’s season more so in a short season including whether the player is a historically slow starter (ex. Joey Votto) or whether a player tends to play better in warmer or colder weather. Additionally, a small injury that would only rob a player of a week or two could wreck a performance by shelving the player for a significant portion of the short season or depress his performance while on the field. For example, missing 10 games during a 162 game season is only 6% of the total games being played while missing 10 games from a 54 game season is 18.5% of the total games being played.
The parties that make up Major League Baseball need to figure out a number of things before we see players suit up and play games again. However, it is my hope that the league finds a way of playing enough games that the signals created by the truly great teams and superstar players can be separated from the noise of anomaly and randomness. The best way this can happen is to find a safe way to produce a larger sample size (MORE GAMES).
underthought 