Hall Of Fame Crystal Ball – Part VII (White Sox)

While watching baseball, I often think about which of today’s players will end up enshrined in the Hall of Fame.  There are a number of players that seem like no brainers (ex. Mike Trout) while others are borderline candidates (ex. Carlos Beltran).  There are some that were easily first ballot but have harmed their chances (ex. Alex Rodriguez) while some were headed in the right direction until injuries steered them off course (ex. Adam Wainwright).

As a thought experiment, I decided to examine the current 40 man rosters of each team in the American League Central and highlight the players on each team with the best chance of making it all the way to Cooperstown, New York.  I have avoided players who have accumulated one full year or less of service time with their pro club due to the lack of stable data from such a small sample.  Today’s post focuses on the Chicago White Sox.

 

 

The candidates:

Jose Abreu: Age 29.  Resume: 2014 Rookie of the Year, 1 All Star selection, 1 top 5 MVP finish.  This talented Cuban defector entered MLB at age 27.  He put up 30/100 seasons in his first two years with the White Sox.  2016 has not been a particularly strong campaign for Abreu although it is still solid by league wide comparison.  There are a number of indicators that are eroding Abreu’s case for the Hall.  In no particular order: His offensive WAR has decreased each season (6.6, 3.7, and currently 1.8).  His OPS has decreased in each of his seasons (.964, .850, and currently .785).  In addition, his strikeout and walk rate have not improved during his MLB career and it is beginning to catch up to him.  Finally, Abreu’s defensive metrics at first base are not good (-4.1 career WAR in only his third season).  In year 1, I was an Abreu ‘believer’.  In year 2, I was an Abreu ‘hoper’.  In year 3, I am becoming an Abreu ‘questioner’.  Next comes Abreu ‘doubter’.  Hall of Fame chance: 15%.

Adam Eaton: Age 27.  Resume: League leader in triples once (currently leading the league in 2016 as well).  14.9 career WAR.  Eaton is a solid hitter and fielder however he does not do anything at an elite level.  Many experts expected annual 20/20 seasons from him but mid-teen production in both steals and homers is more likely.  At age 27, we are most likely seeing Eaton at his prime rate of production.  He is a solid player but not a Hall of Fame candidate.  Hall of Fame chance: 1%.

Todd Frazier: Age 30.  Resume: 2 All Star selections, 1 20/20 season, 95 homers since the start of 2014.  Frazier is in his 6^th season and has accumulated 17.6 WAR.  His power is legitimate and he plays a solid third base however his batting eye is inconsistent.  This leads to ignificant batting average fluctuations as well as a high number of strikeouts, a mediocre walk rate, and a pedestrian OPS (.778 for his career).  Frazier has not put up the numbers needed for Cooperstown and at age 30, it is going to be difficult for him to make up for lost time.  Hall of Fame chance: 6%.

Justin Morneau: Age 35.  Resume: 4 All Star selections, 1 MVP award, 1 second place MVP finish, 2 Silver Slugger awards.  Morneau has three 30 plus homer seasons and 1 batting title.  Injuries, specifically concussions, stole peak season time away from Morneau, robbed him of piling up stats and hardware, and put the breaks on a potential run towards the Hall of Fame.  Good to see him still in the game but a shame that injuries prevented him from achieving so much more.  Hall of Fame chance: 1%.

Jose Quintana: Age 27.  Resume: 1 All Star selection.  Quintana has been an above league average pitcher since breaking in with the White Sox in 2012 but the casual observer has probably not been aware of his solid performance due to a lack of compiling wins.  Quintana took a big step forward in 2016 making his first All Star game and gaining national notoriety.  Quintana consistently averages about 8 strikeouts and two walks per 9 innings and limits home runs.  At age 27, he is in position to compile some excellent seasons if his trends continue.  Racking up victories would be helpful to his Hall case as most voters are going to look at his win – loss record but the proof in the pudding will be his peripheral statistics.  My guess is that Quintana remains a solid pitcher that contributes strong #2 starting pitcher/ excellent #3 starting pitcher numbers.  That doesn’t get a player to Cooperstown, but will likely get him into a handful of additional All Star games.  Hall of Fame chance: 7%.

David Robertson: Age 31.  Resume: 1 All Star Selection and 112 career saves.  Robertson waited his turn to close for the Yankees, finally got it, and succeeded.  He then left to sign a hefty deal with the White Sox to close games for them.  Robertson continued his success in 2015 but took a step back due to a loss of command.  His strikeout rate remains over 10 per game but his walk rate sky rocketed from 1.8 to 4.6 per 9 innings.  He is also giving up more hits per outing as well.  He’s already compiled 31 saves this season which gives him three consecutive 30 plus save seasons however if he was not getting paid big bucks to close or if the White Sox remained in the playoff hunt in 2016, there was a time that they might have tried another pitcher as the closer.  Taking a step backwards at age 31 worries me.  Robertson is late to the party and showing signs of wearing down.  I am not hopeful for his chance to make it to Cooperstown.  Hall of Fame chance: 2%.

Carlos Rodon: Age 23.  Resume: 253 strikeouts in 255 career innings.  Highly touted (3^rd pick of the 2014 draft) flame thrower bust onto the scene last season as a 22 year old and put up a solid rookie campaign.  In 2016, Rodon has been inconsistent.  Positives include continuing to average one strikeout per inning and significantly reducing his walk rate.  Negatives include doubling the number of homers he allows per game, allowing more hits, and continuing to post a WHIP that is over 1.4 in consecutive seasons.  Sticking in the majors at 22 allows Rodon to begin compiling statistics at a young age and gain valuable experience.  If he can continue to develop his pitching skills and stay healthy (the White Sox have a good record of keeping their guys healthy), age is on his side.  Hall of Fame chance: 18%.

Chris Sale: Age 27.  Resume: 5 All Star selections, 3 top 5 Cy Young finishes, over 200 strikeouts in three consecutive seasons (2016 looks like it will be his 4^th).  In his 5^th season as a starter, Sale has accumulated 72 wins and owns a career ERA of 2.95.  He has led the league two times in Ks per 9 innings and has limited his walks to approximately 2 per nine innings for 4 years running.  His 30.5 career WAR shows how valuable a pitcher he has been.  At age 27, Sale has the opportunity to develop a stellar resume.  However, his health has always been a question.  Sale has one of the most painful looking deliveries in baseball and most baseball people can’t understand how he has avoided a serious injury such as a torn UCL (leading to missed time and a likely Tommy John surgery).  Is he playing on borrowed time or should we ignore what our eyes see as a disaster waiting to happen?  If health cooperates, Sale is on the short list for likely Hall members.  Hall of Fame chance: 49%.

James Shields: Age 34.  Resume: 1 All Star selection and 1 top 5 Cy Young finish.  Shields has 9 consecutive seasons of 200 or more innings pitched entering the 2016 season and in his career he has three years that he struck 200 or more batters out.  Shields is known for consistency and durability (9 years in a row of 30 or more starts and leading the league in starts 3 times) but he has compiled only 132 wins in 11 years pitching and has often been homer-prone.  The 2016 season has been Shields’ worst year as a professional.  He’s sporting an ERA of approximately 6 and a WAR of -1.6.  His walk rate is the highest it has ever been and his strikeout rate is the lowest it has ever been.  Shields is a workhorse and is well-respected however he is nowhere near where he needs to be to be seriously considered for a run at the Hall.  With only a few years left, Shields would need a miracle.  Hall of Fame chance: 1%.

Other AL Central analysis:

Twins

NL Central Analysis:

Cubs

Reds

Brewers

Pirates

Cardinals

Punk Rock 101 – Spotlight on Screeching Weasel

Screeching Weasel (see also, Screeching Weasel) is one of my all time favorite bands.  They have gone through a number of member changes over the years but they have never stopped making top shelf punk rock music.  Screeching Weasel hail from Chicago.  They are often mistaken for a California band because they were signed to Lookout Records and were a part of the pop punk explosion that centered on their label mates, Green Day.  Although Screeching Weasel gained some notoriety, they never broke through all the way and remain somewhat of a punk culture secret.

The band has a number of full lengths, splits, 7 inch records, and comp tracks to their credit as well as covering the Ramones’ self titled debut release in its entirety.  While two releases are all time classics of the genre (My Brain Hurts and Anthem for A New Tomorrow), each release has a number of songs that are worth any self-proclaimed “punk’s” time.  Here are my recommendations for those looking to hear the best of what the band offers (in more or less of a time line):

BoogadaBoogadaboogada – Although there was a CD before Boogada, this release contains the best tracks from the original (on Liberation/VML).  This CD contains 26 tracks and while they vary in length (:12 seconds to 2:45 of the 8 I’ve selected) and substance, the following eight songs capture the young snotty band at their best.

• Love
• We Skate
• Stupid Over You
• Runaway
• My Right
• Sunshine
• Supermarket Fantasy
• Hey Suburbia

My Brain Hurts – This is the band at their best.  Every song on the CD is amazing so just throw down the money and get the whole album.  What?  You don’t want to buy the whole damn thing?  Ok, your loss.  Check out:

• Slogans
• Guest List
• Veronica Hates Me
• I Wanna Be With You Tonight
• My Brain Hurts

Wiggle – This one is solid but takes a small step back from My Brain Hurts.  The production is a bit rougher which is strange because Mass Giorgini (pop punk producer extraordinaire) was at the helm.  This release is probably one of the more divisive CDs Screeching Weasel put out.  Everyone I know that likes Screeching Weasel has different favorite songs off this.  Mine are:

• One Step Beyond
• Crying In My Beer
• Like A Parasite
• Second Floor East
• Ain’t Got No Sense (Teenage Head cover)
• Teenage Slumber Party

Anthem For A New Tomorrow – How did this CD not break Screeching Weasel out from the underground?  Each of the 18 tracks is a masterpiece in punk rock.  In addition to the snotty vocals and melodic guitar leads, Screeching Weasel incorporated some keyboards which pushed these already memorable songs into ‘catchy as a cold’ territory.  The four member line up of Weasel, Jughead, Panic, and Vapid is the fans’ favorite and this CD finds the guys creating greatness.  Like My Brain Hurts, I suggest buying the album in its entirety but if you are going to cheap out, check out these songs:

• I’m Gonna Strangle You
• Falling Apart
• Leather Jacket
• Peter Brady (Fat Mike from NOFX helping on vocals)
• Every Night
• Totally

How To Make Enemies And Irritate People – Within the liner notes, Ben Weasel documents that Screeching Weasel broke up after releasing this album.  However, hold back your tears because they got back together and continued making music after a few years off.  Dan Vapid left the band before the recording of this CD and Mike Dirnt from Green Day stepped in to cover bass guitar for the record.  This album often gets overlooked, likely from the turmoil that was going on with the band when the disk was released.  There are a lot of great songs on here.  My favorites:

• 99
• If I Was You
• Burnout Girl
• Surf Goddess (check out the Queers’ version of this song too)
• Kathy’s On The Roof
• I Wrote Holden Caulfield

Kill The Musicians – The band and record label compiled comp tracks, seven inch tracks, unreleased songs, and live versions for a 31 song release.  Although the recording quality is all over the place due to a number of variables (year of the recording, financial investment in the recording, musical proficiency of the band) there are a number of tracks that stand out.  These include:

•  I Need Therapy
• Something Wrong
• Radio Blast
• The Girl Next Door
• Six A.M.
• The American Dream
• Around On You
• Goodbye To You

Bark Like A Dog – Screeching Weasel’s first release on FAT Wreck Chords found the gang back together (Weasel, Vapid, Jughead, and Panic).  This release was a great way for the FAT WRECK mall punks to get introduced to SW.  ‘Cool Kids’ was the song that the band and label pushed but I think there are more interesting and catchier songs on here.  My recommendations include:

• Get Off My Back
• You’ll Be In My Dreams Today
• You Blister My Paint
• Handcuffed To You
• Your Name Is Tattooed On My Heart

Television City Dream – The band’s second release on FAT was high quality.  However not all of the core four members of the band stayed.  These songs are fast, loud, and aggressive yet still manage to contain strong melodies.  I think this is the forgotten gem of the Screeching Weasel collection and I would rank it towards the top of their catalog; close to Anthem and Brain Hurts.  My favorites are:

• Speed of Mutation
• Identity Crisis
• Plastic Bag
• I Don’t Give A Fu*k
• Only A Test
• Cry Baby on the re-issue is amazing and probably didn’t make it on the original release due to the slightly different vibe it has from the other tracks rather than for being a lesser song.

Major Label Debut – This was a 6 song EP release on Panic Button, Ben Weasel’s start up label (with some backing help from Lookout Records).  This release highlights great musicianship and a polished sound.  Check out:

• The Last Janelle
• Racist Society

Emo – This is probably my least favorite CD by the band.  The song writing is uneven and goes in a direction that takes the band away from what they do best and down a road that stylistically falls short of what their ‘A’ game has proven to be.  The production on this CD doesn’t do the songs any favors either.  The best of the lot include:

• Linger (Cranberries cover)
• Static
• Let Go
• Last Night

Beat Is On The Brat – This is the Panic Button/Lookout re-release of Screeching Weasel covering the entire Ramones debut album.  It also includes four songs from a 7 inch record release.  Check out:

• Whichever Ramones songs are your favorite
• Pretty Girls Don’t Talk To Me
• I Don’t Care Anymore

Thank You Very Little – This double CD came out on Panic Button/Lookout.  The first CD contains songs previously found only on vinyl, compilation CDs, or were unreleased.  The second CD is an entire live show from 1993 and is for only die-hard fans.  On CD 1, check out:

• 27 Things I Wanna Do To You
• Every Night (alternate version)
• Lose The Dink
• Suspect Device (Stiff Little Fingers cover)
• Can’t Take It
• You Are My Sunshine (cover)

Teen Punks In Heat – This 20 song release on Panic Button/Lookout varies in song quality.  The good songs are really good.  The short and snappy numbers to check out are:

• Bottom Of The 9^th
• You’re The Enemy
• Pauline

The longer songs to check out:

• I Will Always Do (Manges cover)
• Message In A Beer Bottle
•  You’re Sorry Now
• The Edge Of The World

First World Manifesto – Released after taking a few years off from Screeching Weasel, Weasel and Vapid teamed up with a few new players and put out an extremely good 14 song CD.  Unfortunately, Fat Mike from NOFX/Fat Wreck took offense to some of the lyrics on this which caused Mike and Ben to have a falling out.  Then, while touring this release, some unpleasantness occurred during a live show and the band was derailed.  These two factors took the focus off a strong CD and crippled its chances of being heard by a large audience.  Check out:

• Beginningless Vacation
• Friday Night Nation
• All Over Town
• Fortune Cookie
• Little Big Man

Carnival of Schadenfreude – 7 angry songs penned by Ben Weasel.  These songs focus on the events and fallout from the First World Manifesto tour/fiasco.  It is a mixed result but the strong songs are excellent.  Check out:

• Under The Bus
• Parasite Murders

Baby Fat: Act 1 – This is the most ambitious project by Ben Weasel yet.  It is a 27 song punk rock opera featuring a ton of great musicians.  The songwriting is eclectic, the production is amazing, and the story is well developed.  This release works as a CD that can be listened to in its entirety or just as a collection of individual songs.  Find and download the storyline/lyric sheet and it opens up a whole new dimension to this CD.  Check out:

• All Winter Long
• I’ve Got VD
• Things Aren’t So Bad After All
• Living Hell
• Poveretta
• Disharmony

Disclaimer: I generally dislike greatest hits CDs and Weasel Mania is no exception.  Weasel Mania is a 34 song compilation that came out in 2005.  It has a number of good songs on it but I think you can do better by hand picking tracks from the above list I’ve provided and by getting My Brain Hurts and Anthem For A New Tomorrow in their entirety.

 

Hall of Fame Crystal Ball – AL Central – Part VI (Twins)

While watching baseball, I often think about which of today’s players will end up enshrined in the Hall of Fame.  There are a number of players that seem like no brainers (ex. Mike Trout) while others are borderline candidates (ex. Carlos Beltran).  There are some that were easily first ballot but have harmed their chances (ex. Alex Rodriguez) while some were headed in the right direction until injuries steered them off course (ex. Adam Wainwright).

As a thought experiment, I decided to examine the current 40 man rosters of each team in the American League Central and highlight the players on each team with the best chance of making it all the way to Cooperstown, New York.  I have avoided players who have accumulated one full year or less of service time with their pro club due to the lack of stable data from such a small sample.  Today’s post focuses on the Minnesota Twins.

 

 

Candidates:

Joe Mauer: Age 33.  Resume: First pick of the 2001 draft, 6 All Star selections, 1 MVP award (and one additional Top 5 MVP finish), 3 Gold Glove awards, and 5 Silver Slugger awards.  Mauer is a 3 time batting champ and has a .311 career batting average with a career WAR of 50.  He was on the fast track to Cooperstown but injuries have derailed Mauer’s ‘no-brainer’ status.  He is going to need every counting statistic he can get as his career begins to wind down.  In his 13^th season, Mauer has only one season of 20 plus homers (129 for his career), has zero 100 runs and zero 100 RBI seasons, and stole more than 10 bases once.  Unfortunately for Mauer, these are traditional stats that Hall of Fame voters often focus on when measuring a career.  Additionally, his permanent move from catcher to first base in 2014 has made his lack of power more noticeable than when he played behind the dish.  Mauer is a fan favorite and will score some additional backing from the voters if he remains a Twin for the remainder of his career.  He needs to stay healthy, maintain his strong batting eye, and compile, compile, compile!  Hall of Fame chance: 40%.

Glen Perkins: Age 33.  Resume: 3 All Star selections and 120 career saves.  Shoulder surgery ended Perkins’ 2016 season after only two appearances and the track record for pitchers coming back from shoulder issues is not great.  Perkins officially moved into the closer role in 2012 (age 29 season) which put him at a disadvantage for gaudy career save totals.  Additionally, Perkins never dominated hitters as his Ks per 9, WHIP, and ERA reflect.  Hall of Fame chance: less than 1%.

Brian Dozier: Age 29.  Resume: 1 All Star selection, one 20/20 season, three consecutive 20 plus homer seasons, and 16 career WAR in what is currently his 5^th season.  Great power from a middle infielder and Dozier also possesses solid speed.  However, Dozier’s batting average and OPS are lower than what he’d need to be on a solid path to Cooperstown (although 2016 is a bit improved than past seasons).  His stats are somewhat bi-polar with runs and homers helping his case while RBI, batting average, and OPS hurting his case.  At 29, Dozier is going to have an uphill battle and time is definitely not on his side.  He will need to extend his prime for many more years to position himself to make a real run at the Hall.  Hall of Fame chance: 9%.

Miguel Sano: Age 23.  Resume: 38 homers in less than 600 career at bats but 247 career strikeouts in this same time period.  Sano is extremely young and extremely strong but also extremely strikeout prone.  He is going to have to improve his ability to take a walk if he is going to continue to whiff at his current rate. Sano’s health is also a question.  He has already had one Tommy John surgery and has missed time (MRI examination) on the elbow in 2016.  His build, fielding ability, and health make it appear that Sano is destined to be a designated hitter.  If he doesn’t play the field, the Hall’s voters will likely hold it against him.  It will be an uphill battle but he has youth on his side.  If skills grow (especially the batting eye), his power remains elite, and he can stay healthy in his prime, he’ll have a fighting chance.  Hall of Fame chance: 14%.

For a look at the previously profiled NL Central:

Cubs

Reds

Brewers

Pirates

Cardinals

 

Hall of Fame Crystal Ball – Part V

While watching baseball, I often think about which of today’s players will end up enshrined in the Hall of Fame.  There are a number of players that seem like no brainers (ex. Mike Trout) while others are borderline candidates (ex. Carlos Beltran).  There are some that were easily first ballot but have harmed their chances (ex. Alex Rodriguez) while some were headed in the right direction until injuries steered them off course (ex. Adam Wainwright).

As a thought experiment, I decided to examine the current 40 man rosters of each team in the National League Central and highlight the players on each team with the best chance of making it all the way to Cooperstown, New York.  I have avoided players who have accumulated one full year or less of service time with their pro club due to the lack of stable data from such a small sample.  Today’s post focuses on the St. Louis Cardinals.

Carlos Martinez: Age 24.  Resume: 1 All Star selection.  2016 is Martinez’s 4^th season with the Cardinals and his second as a full time starter.  2015 was a great year for him (14 wins, 3.01 ERA, and more strikeouts than innings pitched) but 2016 has been uneven.  His overall numbers are solid (WAR=3.4) which disguises some of the rocky outings he has had.  Having the opportunity to pitch for the always solid St. Louis organization should help him compile traditional stats like wins.  However, he is going to need to continue to progress as a pitcher and stay healthy (something Cardinal pitchers have generally not been able to do in recent years) if he is going to generate the type of WAR needed to prove a worthy inductee.  Hall of Fame chance: 17%.

Adam Wainwright: Age 34.  Resume: 3 All Star selections, 2 second place and 2 third place CY Young finishes, 2 Gold Gloves, and 2 World Series championships (although injured for one of the championship seasons).  Wainwright has pitched for 11 seasons (12 if you count the year he missed due to injury) and although he appeared on track for the Hall of Fame, injuries have derailed his journey to Cooperstown.  For four years, he earned over 6 WAR per season.  He also won 20 games twice, had 4 seasons as a starter where his ERA was below 3, and accumulated over 200 strikeouts in three seasons.  These are the statistics that the voters love and it is a shame that his health did not allow him to maintain his prime for a longer period of time.  If Wainwright was able to recapture this greatness and put another 2 or 3 dominant seasons together (especially if he was the ace of another World Series champ), he would be more likely to earn induction.  However, at 34, regaining his dominance would be an extraordinary feat.  Hall of Fame chance: 28%.

Matt Holliday: Age 36.  Resume: 7 All Star Selections, 1 second place MVP finish, 4 Silver Slugger awards, 47.8 career offensive WAR, 294 career homeruns, 1 time batting champ, and 1 World Series Championship.  Holiday has been a consistent slugger for a number of years although some would argue that the statistics that he put up while in Colorado are less meaningful than the stats he has amassed with Oakland and St. Louis.  He has a great batting eye and for a slugger has a relatively low strikeout rate.  At age 36 and in his 13^th season, Holiday’s age and health are catching up with him.  While he is likely to put up a few more solid seasons, his ability to play every day, dominate the game, and earn All Star selections appear to be over.  If he was a few years younger, had another one or two World Series rings, and his health wasn’t a question, I would be more inclined to see him as getting into the Hall.  However, with none of those three being the case…  Hall of Fame chance: 20%.

Trevor Rosenthal: Age 26.  Resume: 1 All Star selection, more strikeouts than innings pitched in each of his 5 years as a Cardinal’s reliever, and 2 seasons of over 40 saves.  At age 26 and in his third year of being the full time closer for St. Louis, Rosenthal appeared ready for amass another 40 saves.  However, 2016 was the year when his control (and possibly health) ultimately failed him.  He wasn’t able to work himself out of multiple self-created jams ultimately leading to his removal from the closer’s job.  Soon after, Rosenthal was placed on the disabled list with a shoulder problem and demoted to the minors.  Rosenthal is a perfect example of why projecting a career for a closer is like throwing darts wearing a blindfold.  If he can regain his form and take back the closer job, Rosenthal would need another decade of saves and a large strikeout total (being the closer on a few World Series champion teams would help his chances too).  Anything less and he has no chance of Cooperstown.  Hall of Fame chance: 9%.

Yadier Molina: Age 34.  Resume: 7 All Star selections, 8 Gold Glove awards, 1 Silver Slugger award, and 2 top five MVP finishes.  He has also been on two World Series winning teams.  Molina is thought of as the best defensive catcher the game has seen in years.  He can control the running game (led the lead in catching baserunners 4 times), can frame well, and calls a fantastic game.  In his 13 years with the Cardinals, he has a .283 batting average and has hit over .300 four times.  His OPS has topped .800 three times.  At 34, Molina’s health has begun to negatively impact his statistics and overall performance.  However, his resume as a catcher is extremely solid.  Although the Hall of Fame monitoring statistics don’t love his chances, I do.  Hall of Fame chance: 60%.

Matt Carpenter: Age 30.  Resume: 3 All Star selections, 1 top 5 MVP finish, 1 Silver Slugger award.  Carpenter has also led the league in doubles twice, runs once, hits once, and walks once.  He carries a career .843 OPS and a career offensive WAR is 20.0.  Carpenter is versatile in the field and has played first, second, and third base during the past few years (primarily third base) however the defensive metrics do not like his work in the field (-2.0 defensive WAR).  Carpenter came to the party a little late, gaining regular playing time in the big leagues in his age 26 season (and even that season was a partial one).  This has hurt his ability to compile the numbers, awards, and the chance to be a part of a world championship team that would all be helpful for him to gain induction into the Hall.  Can he maintain his level of production long enough to have a prolonged prime and generate the resume needed for serious consideration?  I’m guessing that it’s going to be difficult for him and that he ends up short.  Hall of Fame chance: 10%.

Kolten Wong: Age 25.  Resume: Career totals of 25 homers and 43 steals.  Wong is a former first round pick of the Cardinals and came with lofty expectations.  However, his time in the big leagues has been met with mixed results which has led to only one season of at least 150 games played with St. Louis.  Although a career second baseman, Wong was sent down to the minors mid-year (2016 – age 25 season) and has returned as an outfielder.  His production as a middle infielder was not putting him on a trajectory towards Cooperstown and his production as an outfielder is viewed as even more paltry.  At 25, he needs to figure things out soon and start righting the ship.  Hall of Fame chance: 2%.

Stephen Piscotty: Age 25.  Resume: Piscotty has played both outfield and first base in his first full season with St. Louis.  He played well in 63 games for St. Louis in 2015 and then starred in the NLDS playoff series against the Cubs (3 homers and 1.444 OPS in 4 games).  Piscotty has the tools to be an above average player but does not appear to have any one thing that he does at an elite level.  He appears to be the type of player that can help round out a championship team but I do not see him making the leap to superstar.  Hall of Fame chance: 5%.

Jhonny Peralta Age 34.  Resume: 3 All Star selections.  200 career homeruns.  Five seasons of 20 or more homeruns during his 14 year career is nice from a player who is primarily a shortstop.  However, Peralta earned a 50 game suspension from MLB in 2013 when he was caught in the Biogenesis Performance Enhancing Drug (PED) investigation.  The voters have consistently shown that they will not vote for confirmed PED users thus, Peralta has no shot at the Hall.  Hall of Fame chance: less than 1%.

Randal Grichuk: Age 25.  Resume: Grichuk broke out with St. Louis in 2015 flashing tremendous power (17 homers in only 323 at bats).  However, in 2016, his star has come back to earth.  Grichuk has a questionable eye (5 to 1 K to walks in 2015 and 4 to 1 K to walks in 2016) and his struggles have led him well defensively however Grichuk needs to develop a better approach at the plate if he is going to stick in the pros.  He is still young and has time to develop but his 2016 season is not helping his Hall of Fame case.  Hall of Fame chance: 2%.

To see the other NL Central team player profiles, click the following links:

Cubs

Reds

Brewers

Pirates

 

 

Hall of Fame Crystal Ball – Part IV

While watching baseball, I often think about which of today’s players will end up enshrined in the Hall of Fame.  There are a number of players that seem like no brainers (ex. Mike Trout) while others are borderline candidates (ex. Carlos Beltran).  There are some that were easily first ballot but have harmed their chances (ex. Alex Rodriguez) while some were headed in the right direction until injuries steered them off course (ex. Adam Wainwright).

As a thought experiment, I decided to examine the current 40 man rosters of each team in the National League Central and highlight the players on each team with the best chance of making it all the way to Cooperstown, New York.  I have avoided players who have accumulated one full year or less of service time with their pro club due to the lack of stable data from such a small sample.  Today’s post focuses on the Pittsburgh Pirates.

 

 

Andrew McCutchen: Age 29.  Resume: 5 All Star selections, 2013 MVP (3 other top 5 finishes), 1 Gold Glove, and 4 Silver Slugger awards.  42 offensive WAR.  The defensive metrics do not seem to like his work in the outfield which surprised me as I have never heard his fielding spoken poorly of.  McCutchen is the face of the Pirates franchise and is highly thought of as a person by fans, media, and fellow players.  There has been talk about the trading McCutchen and if that happens the local support he’s gained may somewhat abate and his path to the Hall may be slightly harder.  If he can stick with Pittsburgh long-term, his legacy will solidify (ex. Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken Jr.).  2016 has been a down year for McCutchen so he will have to turn things around and get himself back on the HOF track or all of the above is a moot point.  His 2016 has been so unlike him in fact, that I probably would have rated his Hall of Fame chance about 5% higher if his 2016 resembled anything close to his three prior seasons.  There are a variety of tools for measuring Hall of Fame trajectory and depending on the tool used McCutchen is positioned ‘fairly good’ to ‘on the outside looking in’.  However, quality individuals who transcend the game like McCutchen are sometimes voted for by the sports writers above and beyond what their stats would suggest.  Good will is currently in McCutchen’s favor.  Hall of Fame chance: 47%

Gerrit Cole: Age 25.  Resume: 1 All Star selection.  2016 is Cole’s 4^th year in the bigs.  He has already accumulated 47 wins (with a .627 win percentage) and has a career 3.10 ERA.  His 2015 season was stellar and while 2016 has been solid, it is a step backwards from the superstar path he was on.  Cole has been with the Pirates since he was 22 so if he can stay healthy, he has an opportunity to accumulate some impressive counting stats.  Hall of Fame chance: 35%.

Starling Marte: Age 27.  Resume: 1 All Star selection and 1 Gold Glove.  Additionally, defensive metrics see him as a solid outfielder.  Marte had a taste of the pros in 2012 and is currently in his 4^th full season with the Pirates.  He has amassed over 5 WAR per year for his last three and 2016 seems like he will end up in the mid to high 5s with an outside chance of getting to 6.  Marte has shown his wheels consistently but his power has been a bit more variable.  His age 27 season (2016) has been his best yet.  Marte has an opportunity to make his move into Hall of Fame territory if he can either add some pop to his bat and amass some 20/20 or better seasons or focus on amassing stolen bases while reducing being caught stealing, maintaining high OPS, and winning some hardware (gold gloves, silver sluggers, etc…).  Getting additional exposure to a national audience would help too.    Hall of Fame chance: 24%.

Gregory Polanco: Age 24.  Resume: 3^rd professional season.  Polanco has shown improvement in each of his seasons and 2016 finds Polanco improving his batting eye (increased walk rate and decreased K rate) and increasing power and speed (17 homers, 11 bags).  His OPS is .835.  Polanco is only 24 years old and his skills are consolidating.  He is going to need to take a few more steps forward as he comes into his prime but if he can continue his growth, he is in position to start compiling the stats that are the focus of Hall of Fame voters.  Hall of Fame chance: 16%.

For parts I-III, Click the links below:

Cubs

Reds

Brewers

 

 

Hall of Fame Crystal Ball – Part III

While watching baseball, I often think about which of today’s players will end up enshrined in the Hall of Fame.  There are a number of players that seem like no brainers (ex. Mike Trout) while others are borderline candidates (ex. Carlos Beltran).  There are some that were easily first ballot but have harmed their chances (ex. Alex Rodriguez) while some were headed in the right direction until injuries steered them off course (ex. Adam Wainwright).

As a thought experiment, I decided to examine the current 40 man rosters of each team in the National League Central and highlight the players on each team with the best chance of making it all the way to Cooperstown, New York.  I have avoided players who have accumulated one full year or less of service time with their pro club due to the lack of stable data from such a small sample.  Today’s post focuses on the Milwaukee Brewers.

 

Ryan Braun: Age 32.  Resume: Rookie of the Year, 1 MVP, 1 2^nd place MVP finish, 6 All Star selections, and 5 Silver Sluggers.  Highlights include two 30/30 seasons, 2 20/20 seasons (he may add another of these in 2016), and has lead the league during various seasons in runs, hits, homers, and OPS.  Braun would surely be well on his way to Cooperstown but for his Performance Enhancing Drug (PED) bust and ugly denial.  As the voters have shown, once a player is caught in the PED net, there is no shot at getting voted into the Hall.  If he keeps compiling stats and is not linked to PEDs for the rest of his career, there is a strong possibility that a Veteran’s Committee would vote him into the Hall in the distant future once the PED scandals are a distant memory.  Also, should the voters decide to change their thought process and start to vote PED users in, Braun would have a strong resume to also be included in the annual sports writers’ vote.  Hall of Fame chance: 3%.  Veteran’s Committee vote: 25%.

Jonathan Villar: Age 25.  Resume: 46 steals and a .300 batting average in 2016.  2016 is Villar’s first shot at every day at bats after coming over in a trade to the Brewers from the Houston Astros.  Villar was initially seen as a placeholder on the major league roster until Miluwalkee’s prospects were ready for prime time.  However, Villar has impressed fans, coaches, and management with the gains he had made this season and appears to have a full time role locked up for the remainder of 2016.  He has cut down his strikeouts, increased his walks, and has developed a little bit of pop.  His speed is legit but he is still learning how to refine his stolen base technique.   Although he has stolen 46 bags he currently leads the league in being caught stealing with 16.  Villar wouldn’t have made the Hall of Fame list for any other team in the N.L. Central but the Brewers are currently so bad that Villar was the only player besides Braun to warrant any consideration.  Hall of Fame chance: 1%.

To see the other teams already profiled, click on these links:

Part I – Cubs

Part II – Reds

 

Hall of Fame Crystal Ball – Part II

While watching baseball, I often think about which of today’s players will end up enshrined in the Hall of Fame.  There are a number of players that seem like no brainers (ex. Mike Trout) while others are borderline candidates (ex. Carlos Beltran).  There are some that were easily first ballot but have harmed their chances (ex. Alex Rodriguez) while some were headed in the right direction until injuries steered them off course (ex. Adam Wainwright).

As a thought experiment, I decided to examine the current 40 man rosters of each team in the National League Central and highlight the players on each team with the best chance of making it all the way to Cooperstown, New York.  I have avoided players who have accumulated one full year or less of service time with their pro club due to the lack of stable data from such a small sample.  Today’s post focuses on the Cincinnati Reds.

Players in contention:

Brandon Phillips: Age 35.  Resume: 1 season of 30/30 and 2 seasons of 20/20 production.  Phillips is close to 200/200 for his career which is nice production from a second baseman.  He has been an All Star 3 times, a Silver Slugger 1 time, and has 4 Gold Gloves although defensive metrics do not particularly like his defense (9.8 defensive WAR total over 15 years).  Phillips has had a nice career but it won’t be enough to get him into Cooperstown unless he puts up another half decade of well-above average production at second base.  Hall of Fame chance: 7%.

Joey Votto: Age 32.  Resume: 4 All Star selections, 1 MVP, 1 Gold Glove.  Votto has an impressive career .310 batting average and .956 OPS.  He also often leads the league in walks.  The knock on Votto is that he appears to sacrifice counting stats for plate discipline which hurts his overall counting numbers.  However, he has accumulated 45.9 WAR and is currently in his 10^th pro season.  Playing for a retooling Reds team will hurt his counting numbers until his supporting cast matures and the lackluster product on the field will remove him from the national spotlight.  Votto’s individual performance with the bat will likely keep him in contention for the Hall but he’ll need to perform at his current level for at least another 5 years. Hall of Fame chance: 50%.

Billy Hamilton: Age 25.  3 years of 50 plus steals (counting 2016 where he presently has swiped 51).  Hamilton has no power and questions about his batting eye hampers any projection for growth.  Defensive metrics appear to like his outfield play but his defensive WAR is not eye popping.  At 25 his skills need to take a big jump forward because his wheels will begin to slow in the next few years.  One trick ponies (ex. Vince Coleman) don’t get to Cooperstown.  Hall of Fame chance: 3%.

For Part I of this article which highlights the Chicago Cubs, click here.

The Crystal Ball Hall of Fame

While watching baseball, I often think about which of today’s players will end up enshrined in the Hall of Fame.  There are a number of players that seem like no brainers (ex. Mike Trout) while others are borderline candidates (ex. Carlos Beltran).  There are some that were easily first ballot but have harmed their chances (ex. Alex Rodriguez) while some were headed in the right direction until injuries steered them off course (ex. Adam Wainwright).

As a thought experiment, I decided to examine the current 40 man rosters of each team in the National League Central and highlight the players on each team with the best chance of making it all the way to Cooperstown, New York.  I have avoided players who have accumulated one full year or less of service time with their pro club due to the lack of stable data from such a small sample.  Today’s post focuses on the Chicago Cubs.

Players in contention:

Jake Arrieta: Age 30.  Resume: 1 Cy Young Award and 1 All Star selection.  He has had three years of elite production since coming over to the Cubs from the Orioles but how long can he maintain this production and how many more years can he pitch?   Hall of Fame chance: 20%.

Aroldis Chapman: Age 28.  Resume: 15.1 strikeouts per 9 innings, .98 WHIP, 4 All Star selections, and 170 Saves.  Chapman has dominant stuff and the speed at which he throws is legendary.  However, it is tough for a closer to stay dominant for as long as a player typically needs to in order to be Hall worthy.  His off field behavior does not help his case. Hall of Fame chance: 18%.

Jon Lester: Age 32.  Resume: 139 wins (12^th on active list for wins), 4 All Star selections, 2 World Series rings, piles up Ks as a strikeout pitcher.  Recent throwing woes have led to teams stealing at will when he is on the mound.  Due to his age, Lester needs to be the #1 or #2 starting pitcher on a few more world champs or have little to no decline in production for another 5 or 6 years to get himself positioned for entry to the Hall of Fame.  Hall of Fame chance: 25%.

Kris Bryant: Age 24.  Resume: 2 All Star selections and 2015 Rookie of the Year.  Bryant’s first (almost) 2 years has him headed in the Hall’s direction.  He will need to keep up this level of production for at least another 6 to 8 years.  He’s already a fan favorite and he’s playing for a team that looks to be built for many post season runs.  The stars appear to be aligning for him.  Hall of Fame chance: 55%.

Anthony Rizzo: Age 27.  Resume: 3 All Star selections and 3 years in a row of being in the top 5 for OPS.  Although Rizzo was traded 2 times early in his career and struggled out of the gate, he has settled into stardom with the Cubs.  He needs to continue to power and average and separate himself from the pack of other quality first basemen in the game today by collecting MVP votes and All Star selections.  Some World Series rings wouldn’t hurt either.  At 27 he needs to make the most of his prime production years to maintain the Hall of Fame conversation.  Hall of Fame chance: 40%.

Addison Russell: Age 22.  Resume: All Star selection in his first full year of service (2^nd year in the pros).  Russell is only 22 so attempting to judge his chances for Hall of Fame enshrinement is like trying to guess which Game of Thrones character is next to die.  However, Russell plays nice defense at a premium position (SS), flashes nice power for a 22 year old middle infielder, shows improved batting eye (increased walks and reduced strikeouts).  He’s on the perfect team for the national fanbase to watch him perform in the post season.  If he puts up Derek Jeter like post seasons throughout his 20s while continuing to develop each year, he has the profile to make some noise.  The way too early Hall of Fame chance: 20%.

Ben Zobrist: Age 35.  Resume:  Multi-position competence, 3 All Star selections, 1 World Series championship, and a couple of huge WAR seasons.  He is too old and has not compiled enough WAR, counting stats, or rings to have a real shot at the Hall of Fame.  He is more valuable for being versatile and a grinder than for consistent HOF-like production.  Zobrist was an under-rated sabermetric darling for years until he became an over-rated sabermetric darling.  Hall of Fame chance: 2%.

Jason Heyward: Age 27.  Resume: 1 All Star selection, 3 Gold Gloves (outfielder).  Heyward has already accumulated over 32 WAR (thanks largely to his amazing defense).    Unfortunately, his bat has been somewhat inconsistent during his seven years and has completely disappeared in 2016.  He has compiled 3 seasons of 20 plus steals but his power never materialized (except for one 27 homer season).  At 6 foot 5 and 240 pounds his fans, coaches, and team executives expected more.  Outfield defense doesn’t typically blaze a path to Cooperstown and I don’t think Heyward is going to buck that trend.  I think he can get himself back on track in future seasons but that track brings him back to respectability and not the Hall of Fame.  Hall of Fame chance: 9%.

Ken Giles – Magic Pitcher

There was some headline grabbing baseball news from this weekend.  Alex Rodriguez announced that his playing days will come to an end this Friday.  Also, Ichiro Suzuki collected his 3,000 hit.  However, the one news item that is probably flying below the radar of most MLB fans is Ken Giles and his performance on Sunday.

Giles and the Astros were taking on the Texas Rangers.  Although recently anointed the new closer for the team, Giles was called on prior to the 9^th inning to work a higher leverage situation.  Rather than pitch one inning, Giles ended up pitching 1 and 2/3 innings for the team.  Although this might not sound all that interesting, the highlight of his performance was that Giles ended up striking out six batters, an anomaly because a pitcher working 1 and 2/3 innings should strike out 5 batters at most.  Giles was able to collect 6 strike outs while only being credited with 1 and 2/3 innings of work because one of the batters that struck out ended up reaching first base when a Giles’ third strike pitch got away from the catcher.  As a result, Giles ended up striking out 4 batters in a single inning.

Baseball has a long and storied past that is filled with countless iterations of ways games play out.  I love when unusual events occur.  Everyone who follows baseball will remember Ichiro collecting 3,000 hits and A-Rod stepping away in 2016 after a 22 year pro career.  However, let’s acknowledge Ken Giles and his unusual accomplishment today before it becomes a forgotten footnote to a (mostly) meaningless game in early August.

Here is the ESPN box score for curious parties:      http://www.espn.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=360807118

Giles’ performance on the night:

Innings Pitched: 1.2

Hits: 3

Runs/Earned Runs: 0/0

Walks: 0

Strikeouts: 6

The Math of ‘Stranger Things’

An Examination of Stranger Things – No spoilers!

Stranger Things, a Netflix original series hits on three of my favorite genres – Sci-Fi, Horror, and the 1980s.  Broken into 8 episodes, Stranger Things is a solid mini-series with good acting, an intriguing story line, and characters that are likeable (although many are without complexity).  Reviewers and bloggers alike seem to be falling head over heels for the show and while I enjoyed the viewing experience, I am not sure what it is about the series that has caused people to be so effusive with praise.

After completing the series, I sat back and examined the aspects of the show that most jumped out at me as a viewer.  After considering the components of each episode, I realized that Stranger Things is a mash-up of previously successful art.   Here is a short list of what brought me to this realization:

1. The relationships and interpersonal dynamics of the children in Stranger Things reminded me of Stephen King’s novella, The Body and its subsequent movie adaptation, Stand By Me.
2. The synthesizer background music and the show’s score as well as the opening text is reminiscent of 80s horror classics like Halloween, Friday the 13^th, and Nightmare on Elm Street. The artwork that accompanies each episode is hand drawn character sketches that overlay one another (similar to the original Star Wars trilogy movie posters – and who doesn’t like the movie posters for Star Wars???????).
3. Setting the story in the 1980s is a crowd pleaser. It was executed well with few, if any, inconsistencies.  Feathered hair, tube socks, plush rugby shirts, and bikes with banana seats = good times.
4. Stranger Things shares a number of visuals with classic films. The imagery of Eleven’s sensory deprivation experiences bared a strong similarity to the film, The Cell.  Something evil attempts to come through the wall but rather than breaking through, the wall expands out as if it is made of Silly Putty ala A Nightmare on Elm Street.  Finally, the writers pulled a ‘reverse E.T. (kids riding their bikes in an attempt to escape adult authority figures – only this time the kids aren’t the ones levitated to safety).

Although I enjoyed Stranger Things, I did not LOVE it.  I am a little confused about why it did not completely win me over.  It reminds me of a lot of modern art and music that makes use of the historical success of others and incorporates something already appreciated into a new product (ex. Vanilla Ice using Queen’s ‘Under Pressure’ in ‘Ice Ice Baby’ – sorry for the dated reference but this was the first analogy that jumped into my head).  Perhaps the homage through collage creates a safe and likeable experience for me as the consumer, however something that leans too heavily on pieces that other creators have produced doesn’t equal the new experience that I anticipated.  Instead of 1+1+1+1=4, Stranger Things is closer to 1+1+1+1= 3 or maybe 3 ½.