Revisiting Reader Poll MLB Predictions from July


On July 13th, Underthought posted a reader’s poll asking for MLB predictions.  Now that the 2017 season is finished, let’s review the results and compare the votes to the actual outcome:

Who will:

Win the AL East = Red Sox 73% and Yankees at 14%

Win the AL Central = Indians 88% and Twins 7%

Win the AL West = Astros 98%

*The respondents did well picking division winners.  The second place finishers in the East and Central were the Wild Card winners.


Will an AL team win 100 or more games = 80% said yes

*Cleveland ended the season with 102 wins and Huston ended with 101.


Worst AL record will belong to: White Sox 52% and As 27%

*The Tigers ended up with the worst record (64 wins).  The White Sox were a close second with 67 wins.


Win the NL East = Nationals 96%

Win the NL Central = Cubs 51% followed by Brewers 38%

Win the NL West = Dodgers 92%

*The respondents did well picking division winners.  It was interesting how many voters liked the Brewers’ chance to take the Central when votes were cast in mid-July.


Will an NL team win 100 or more games = 73% said yes

*The Dodgers ended the season with a MLB best 104 wins.


Worst NL record will belong to: Phillies 63% and Padres 26%

*The worst record in the NL belonged to the Giants (64 wins).  The Phillies finished with the second worst record (66 wins).


Aaron Judge will hit ___ homers:

40-49 homers: 60%

50-59 homers: 27%

30-39 homers: 12%

*Judge ended the season with 52 homers.


Eric Thames will hit __ homers:

30-39 homers: 72%

23-29 homers: 16%

40-49 homers: 10%
*Thames cooled off significantly as the season progressed and ended with a total of 31 homers.


Will Mike Trout lead the AL in WAR for the 6th straight year:

64% said no

Trout missed a good deal of time with an injury but came back strong.  Although it looked like he would make a strong challenge for the AL WAR lead, he slowed down towards the end of the season.  Trout finished with the 6th highest WAR in the AL (5th if pitchers are excluded from the list) with a Baseball Reference calculated WAR of 6.7.

NL Cy Young Winner:

Scherzer: 48%

Kershaw: 46%

*To be determined but based on the numbers, I wouldn’t be surprised if Scherzer finished first and Kershaw finished second in Cy Young voting.

AL Cy Young Winner:

Sale: 79%

Someone else: 12%

Kluber: 6%

* To be determined but Kluber’s second half performance moved him into strong consideration for this award.  Prediction – Kluber first and Sale second in the AL Cy Young voting.


AL Team that will be in the World Series:

Astros = 67%

Indians = 13%

Red Sox = 10%


NL Team that will be in the World Series:

Dodgers = 59%

Nationals = 21%

Cubs = 8%

Brewers = 6%


The 2017 World Series champion will be:

Astros = 45%

Dodgers = 39%

Indians = 6%

Cubs = 4%

*These four teams appear to be the most popular choices for winning it all as they head into the 2017 post season.  However, it would be interesting to see which team readers would have the most confidence in if they were polled today.


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