Crystal Ball Hall of Fame- Part X (Indians)

September 28, 2016Leave a comment

While watching baseball, I often think about which of today’s players will end up enshrined in the Hall of Fame. There are a number of players that seem like no brainers (ex. Mike Trout) while others are borderline candidates (ex. Carlos Beltran). There are some that were easily first ballot but have harmed their chances (ex. Alex Rodriguez) while some were headed in the right direction until injuries steered them off course (ex. Adam Wainwright).

As a thought experiment, I decided to examine the current 40 man rosters of each team in the American League Central and highlight the players on each team with the best chance of making it all the way to Cooperstown, New York. I have avoided players who have accumulated one full year or less of service time with their pro club due to the lack of stable data from such a small sample. Today’s post focuses on the Cleveland Indians.

The candidates:

Cody Allen: Age 27. Resume: Lead league5 in 2015 in games finished, career average of 11.5 Ks per 9 innings, and 88 saves since getting regular opportunities in 2014 (90 total). Allen maintained the closer role in Cleveland even with the addition of Andrew Miller. Does this mean that he will be locked in for compiling saves for a strong team for many more years to come or will the off season bring about a shake-up of bullpen roles or even a trade? His role will impact whether he has even the smallest of chances at the Hall or whether he becomes just another backend quality arm. He walks a dangerous path by giving up between 3 to 4 walks per 9 innings each season but he compiles more strikeouts than innings pitched each year as well which often bails him out of difficult situations. He has a solid body of work and has maintained his health, however, he is going to need to stay at this level for an extremely prolonged period (and earn saves wherever he plays) or elevate his game to the next level and join the elite for a slightly shorter period of time (earning saves wherever he plays). Hall of Fame chance: 7%.

Trevor Bauer: Age 25. Resume: 3^rd pick of the 2011 draft and 29 career wins. 2016 has seen Bauer take a step forward in his development in a number of ways. Although he started the season in the pen, Francona moved him back to a starting role and the results have been positive. Although Bauer’s strikeout rate is lower than in the past, he has cut his walk rate and is giving up fewer homers. He still needs to significantly improve in a variety of areas to have any shot at compiling the impressive numbers he will need to make a real run at Hall of Fame consideration. His first step is becoming more consistent(ly good) from start to start and finding ways to pitch deeper into games. At 25 and with a strong team controlling his rights for a number of seasons, Bauer has an opportunity to make a nice run if he is able to continue to elevate his game. That’s a big ‘if’ in that last sentence. Hall of Fame chance: 12%.

Michael Brantley: Age 29. Resume: 1 All Star selection, 1 Silver Slugger award, 1 top 5 MVP award finish, one 20/20 season, and league leader in doubles once. Brantley has immense talent but has a hard time staying healthy and on the field. 2016 was limited to a total of 11 games and in his 8 year pro career Brantley has played over 150 games only twice. There’s a lot to like in Brantley’s skills profile: plate discipline, speed power combination, and OPS growth during his prime. Unfortunately, Brantley’s injuries have hurt him most during his prime years and it is going to be difficult to make up for lost time. The injuries he’s sustained (most notably his shoulder) may also impact his ability to stay on the field and/or put up All Star level counting stats. Hall of Fame chance: 14% and declining.

Carlos Carrasco: Age 29. Resume: 44 career wins and 607 career strikeouts. Carrasco missed all of 2012 due to injury but since 2014, he has proven to be an above average pitcher (although he has battled various injuries during this time). He has amassed 506 strikeouts and 33 wins in 464 innings since the start of 2014. His injury profile is difficult to ignore but Carrasco has put together an impressive run and is close to joining today’s elite pitchers. At 29, it may prove difficult for Carrasco to sustain enough momentum to compile the numbers he is going to need to make a strong Cooperstown case, however, if he could remain healthy for a 6 or 8 year stretch, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him insert his name into the Hall’s discussion. Hall of Fame chance: 14%.

Jason Kipnis: Age 29. Resume: 2 All Star selections, 19.8 career WAR in 6 pro seasons, and 75 career homers and 114 careeer steals (one 20 home run season, two 30 steal seasons, and one 20 steal season). Kipnis has put together a number of nice seasons for the Tribe and at age 29 he is continuing to perform well. However, as he enters his post-prime it will be interesting to see if Kipnis can maintain All Star level production. He’s a valuable player to his team and possesses a number of skills that are average to above average but Kipnis has never been a league leader in any statistical category and has never been the variable that propelled Cleveland to new heights. Rather, he is a nice cog in a well build machine. Additionally, many of his best attributes are skills of the young (steals, middle infield glove work) so as he enters his 30s the question becomes whether these strengths hold up. Hall of Fame chance: 8%.

Corey Kluber: Age 30. Resume: 1 Cy Young award, 1 All Star selection, league leader in wins once, league leader in losses once, league leader in games started and complete games one time, and current league leader in shutouts and hits per 9 innings in 2016. He has also amassed three consecutive 200 plus strikeout seasons. Kluber has amassed more strikeouts than innings pitched, 57 career wins, and 18.9 WAR in his six pro seasons (only 15 total appearances in his first two pro-seasons). Kluber is a workhorse who is proving he can stay healthy. He is considered to be an ace by baseball fans and elite by the sabermetric community. There is a lot to like in his profile, especially if he can maintain his health. The greatest obstacle to Cooperstown thus far has been the late start he got off to (age 27 was the first season he was earned regular starts in the rotation). I am very interested to see how the next five years play out for Kluber. Hall of Fame chance: 28%.

Francisco Lindor: Age 22. Resume: 1 All Star selection, 2^ndplace finish for AL Rookie of the Year award, 26 homers, 30 steals, and .309 career line to go along with 9.9 WAR in only 249 career games. Lindor shines offensively and defensively. He’s a shortstop that hits for average, flashes power, and can steal a base. He is a central piece for Cleveland and is quickly becoming the face of the franchise. He’s relatively new to the league and very young so it’s not unlikely that growing pains may arise as the league attempts to find holes in his game. However, he has shown that he is able to make adjustments and maintain all star level production throughout an entire season. There is a lot to like about Lindor. Keep compiling and stay healthy! Hall of Fame chance: 33%.

Andrew Miller: Age 31. Resume: 1 All Star selection, 10.1 K per 9 rate for his career (over 700 strikeouts in slightly over 620 innings), and 8.1 innings of work in the post season with a 0.00 ERA and only one hit allowed. Since switching from starter to reliever in 2012, Miller has put up increasingly impressive statistics. He is one of the most unhittable pitchers in the game and has put up ERA+ numbers that are beyond elite (198, 200, and 286 in the past three seasons). During this three year run of greatness, his WHIP has been .802, .859, and .721. His K per 9 has been 14.9, 14.6, and 14.7. The trade that sent him to Cleveland in 2016 has moved him from a traditional set up or closer role and into a unique highest leverage situation – fireman role. Although this role is perhaps more essential to a team than a typical closer’s role, Miller will have a difficult time compiling counting stats (wins or saves). Savvy fans will see the value Miller contributes on a nightly basis, but box score watchers may miss the true greatness he displays on a nightly basis. Hall of Fame chance: 18%.

Mike Napoli: Age 34. Resume: 2 World Series appearances and 1 World Series championship, 1 All Star selection, 5 seasons of 20 plus homers and 2 seasons of 30 plus homers (currently with 34 in 2016). He has amassed 238 career homers and 28.1 WAR. Napoli does not earn strong fielding marks and hasn’t played catcher since 2012 which makes his counting statistics less impressive in comparison to other first basemen, designated hitters, and outfielders. 2016 is arguably his statistically most impressive but at age 34 and in his 11^th season as a pro, Napoli will be hard pressed to sustain this production another next half decade or more. Cooperstown is not going to happen. Hall of Fame chance: 2%.

Danny Salazar: Age 26. Resume: 1 All Star selection, 33 career wins, 10.1 career k per 9 rate (more strikeouts than innings pitched), 3.1 walks per 9 innings for his career, and ERA+ of 120 or higher in 3 out of 4 seasons. Salazar is currently working his way back from a strained forearm. It’s injuries like these that make projecting whether a 26 year old pitcher is or is not on a path for the Hall of Fame. Salazar has been impressive in his first few years as a pro and will hopefully continue to show growth as he enters his prime years if he can bounce back and avoid a significant arm injury. His numbers would look even more impressive if he could cut down his walks (and accompanying WHIP) while maintaining his high K rate. His profile has a lot of eye catching numbers that the hall’s voters tend to like; he’s amassing wins, racking up strikeouts, and starting to earn All Star selections. He’s also on a team that can get him wins and post-season notoriety. If he performs like an ace under the spotlight of the playoffs, his reputation will be further enhanced. Health and command will be the two factors that will determine whether his yearly output puts him in line for a run at the Hall. Hall of Fame chance: 18%.

Carlos Santana: Age 30. Resume: Led the league in walks once, 3 seasons of over 20 homers and has broken the 30 homer mark for the first time in 2016. If Santana put these statistics up as a full time catcher, the numbers would be more impressive. However, he has not caught a significant number of games since 2013. The defensive metrics do not like his glove work and career offensive WAR is only 22.6. He works the strike zone very well and generally strikes out as much as he walks (career: 628 walks and 711 strikeouts). However, the plate discipline he has shown has surprisingly not translated into an impressive batting average (.245 career). His career OPS is approximately .800 which is nice, but not stellar. Without an All Star appearance or any individual awards to his credit, Santana is merely a nice player but not an all time great. Hall of Fame chance: 5%.

The other profiled teams:

AL CENTRAL

NL CENTRAL

Mr. T Experience – New Song/Video released today!

September 20, 2016Leave a comment

Mr. T Experience released their first new song in over a decade today. The song and accompanying video for Cynthia (with a Y) can be found here. The song is a sneak peak from the band’s upcoming full length, King Dork Approximately the album, which is due out October 4th. This release will be available as a digital download and will come with a soft cover edition of Frank (Dr. Frank) Portman’s novel, King Dork Approximately. Now stop reading and listen to the new track!

Click here for my recent interview with Dr. Frank and a look back at the classic, Love is Dead CD.

Mr. T Experience’s ‘Love is Dead’ is Alive and Well

September 16, 2016September 16, 201611 Comments

2016 marks the 20 year anniversary of Mr. T Experience’s, Love is Dead CD. This CD is one of the finest examples of 1990’s pop punk and captured one of the best bands of the era at the top of their game. Throughout the past 20 years, Love is Dead has consistently found its way onto my mixed tapes, then my burned CD mixes, and now my ipod playlists. Although Mr. T Experience continues to release great CDs, Love is Dead captured their greatest incarnation and embodied the best of what the band offered which is, in a nutshell, catchy, extremely concise, well written, love songs. I had a chance to ask lead singer/guitarist/primary songwriter, Frank Portman (aka Dr. Frank), his thoughts about Love is Dead and some of his recollections about that time period for the band.

The Making of Love is Dead

Love is Dead was the first time that Dr. Frank (guitar/vocals), Jym (drums), and Joel (bass) recorded together. Frank recalls, “There was some good, ‘new band’ energy from the line-up change. Jym was a much more straightforward drummer, which is what this kind of band and that kind of record needed. Beyond that, though, it was a different experience in other ways: it was the first time we had the opportunity to record in a ‘real studio’; and it was the first time I came prepared with songs already written and the basic idea of the album already planned out. This made Love is Dead the least ‘random’ record we’d ever made. Ironically, perhaps, the fancier studio meant we had less total time despite the bigger budget. That and the relative inexperience of the band, along with a variety of other factors led to the minimalist arrangements, although minimalism was part of the plan from the beginning.”

MTX enlisted their long time engineer and producer, Kevin Army. Army had worked with the band for years but as Frank points out, the process for this record was different. “Love Is Dead is the first recording, I believe, where I made demos and presented all the songs to Kevin before showing up in the studio. He killed or deferred some of the songs but I had so many that I didn’t much mind. One song we disagreed about was “Thank You for Not Being One of Them” which he thought was too similar to all the others which he was right about, but I was still right to keep it on the record, I think. He nixed “We Are the Future People of Tomorrow” because we’d already done a parody rock song (“Alternative Is Here to Stay”) and had a “song about bands” on the record already (“Dumb Little Band”); he wanted me to de-emphasize novelty. That was probably the right call, but there’s nothing wrong with that song. The songs themselves were fully written well before the recording; and the arrangements were as basic as basic could be. Kevin had a vision for the sound though, one that he built from the ground up and took a lot of pains over.” The band spent approximately one week laying down the tracks in the studio with Army and then another week mixing the songs.

The Release of Love is Dead

Love is Dead was well received by the pop punk community and expanded MTX’s fan base. Frank says, “It was by far the most popular and biggest selling thing we ever did. It went over well, which was a novelty, and a welcome one, but also a surreal experience that I don’t think I ever quite got my mind around.” The band worked hard and toured the album throughout the United States. “Playing shows with an audience present was a nice novelty and I’ll never forget the experience.”

Glory Daze, a film starring a young Ben Affleck, French Stewart, Sam Rockwell, and Alyssa Milano was released around this time and MTX allowed three of their songs (‘I Just Wanna Do It with You’ from Love is Dead) to be used in the movie. Frank recalls, “The movie was made by Rich Wilkes. He grew up in Santa Cruz and he tried to put his favorite music from his teenaged years into the film. He just called me up and said he wanted to use my songs and I said okay.” The band also made two videos to promote Love is Dead. Frank remembers, “Making videos was ‘the thing you did’ in the 90s to try to make it in the big time music biz, so like everyone else MTX and our label tried to give it a shot. The Ba Ba Ba one was made by a longtime filmmaker friend of mine, Jennifer Kaufman and she put a lot of herself into it. Then we did the other one (I Fell for You). I think each got played on MTV precisely once.”

Songs from Love is Dead

Examining each of the 16 songs found on Love is Dead, Frank believes the highlights include the opening track (Sackcloth and Ashes), Deep Deep Down, I Fell for You, You’re the Only One, Semi-OK, and Ba Ba Ba Ba. Song writing, especially the lyrics and word play have always been swhat makes the Mr. T Experience outshine many other pop punk bands. I asked Frank about his songwriting approach and he explained, “1. Have a clear topic and “conceit” (usually that means a title) and try to make sure it’s not identical to something else someone else has done better; 2. Know what you’re going to say – make sure you do in fact have something to say; 3. Know what you want the lyrics to do, as lines, as verses, and in the overall narrative structure. That is, try to have strategic goals for the lyrics and what they are meant to accomplish; 4. Make sure that each element/line/chunk meets at least a couple of these goals at the same time, and discard lines that don’t “multi-task.” #1 is the most important. There’s no point whatever in rewriting someone else’s song if you don’t add something distinctive to it.”

Frank followed this formula while writing the songs found on Love is Dead. Each song is beautiful in its simplicity yet when the listener focuses on the lyrical craftsmanship, he or she finds word play perfection. Take, for example, ‘I’m Like Yeah, But She’s All No’:

The search for love and happiness

Turns out to be a game of chess

You can’t move or you flip the board

And you’re lying in pieces on the floor

Then later, in the same song:

Success in these relationships

Rests more or less on gamesmanship

And these are ships that I can’t board

Or keep in order or afford

A second example of Frank’s ability to play with words and keep the listener entertained yet somewhat off balance can be found in, ‘I Fell for You’:

Fall for me

Can’t you see it’s the least you can do?

I did it all for you.

What have you ever done for me?

Well, you snatched me from the jaws of death, that’s true,

And you rescued me with your last breath, that too,

But what have you done for me lately?

* All lyrics written by (Dr.) Frank Portman – c 1995 – Itching Powder Music, BMI

20 Years Later

Love is Dead captured the pop punk sound of the mid-90s but has aged well and has become a timeless classic much like Screeching Weasel’s My Brain Hurts and the Queers’ Love Songs for the Retarded. Frank believes that Love is Dead has held up well. “It justifies its existence by being not quite like anything else but itself. Looking at it now there’s a distinctive feel and ‘vibe’ to it and I can see why people found it compelling. Mostly, though, it’s all about the songs and an album only holds up to any standard to the degree to which the songs do. And there are some pretty good ones on there. The songs still resonate for me, which is nothing to sneeze at 20 years later.”

On the road, Frank sees firsthand just how important the Love is Dead album is for fans of the band. “Ba Ba Ba Ba always got a big reaction and that’s still the case even today. I would say that now the other songs from Love is Dead get an even bigger reaction than they originally did because people love them so much and we only do a few of them in a usual set.”

New Stuff

Fans of MTX rejoice! A new album (digital download) titled, King Dork Approximately the album is soon to be released. It will be accompanied with Frank’s book (King Dork Approximately) in paperback form. MTX will also hit the road to play some select shows. For more information, check out Dr. Frank’s page. Visit the site on Tuesday, September 20^th when a new song will be featured from the upcoming album along with a video.

If you enjoy pop punk, you may also like this Punk Rock 101 – Spotlight on Screeching Weasel.

Crystal Ball Hall of Fame – Part IX (Royals)

September 12, 20161 Comment

The candidates:

Lorenzo Cain: Age 30. Resume: 1 All Star selection, one top 5 MVP award finish, .287 career batting average, 2 World Series appearances and 1 World Series championship. Although he initially made it to the big leagues in 2010, Cain didn’t get regular playing time until 2014 (his age 27 season). WAR finds him equally valuable with the glove and with the bat (11.6 career offensive WAR to 11.2 career defensive WAR) but glove work doesn’t often significantly factor in with the Hall’s voters. He’s a late bloomer who has lost a significant amount of his prime riding the bench/playing in the minors. He’s going to need an extended prime, stay healthy, and rack up incredible numbers to have any real chance. It’s unlikely. Hall of Fame chance: 5%.

Wade Davis: Age 30. Resume: 2 All Star selections, 2 World Series appearances, and 1 World Series championship. Davis has been lights out since the Royals moved him from fringe starter to key member of the bullpen. However, Davis has shown a slow erosion of skills and stats in each of his last three years. He has been limited by injury in the second half of 2016 and it will be interesting to see what skill level he performs at for the remainder of the season. It took Davis until his age 29 season to begin compiling saves thus it is unlikely that he will end his career with enough saves to garner many Hall of Fame votes. He is going to have to put together an otherworldly performance for at least five more years as a closer and work at a 1.0 WHIP or less, 10.0 or higher K per 9 rate, and an ERA under 2.00 to have any real chance. Hall of Fame chance: 4%.

Danny Duffy: Age 27. Resume: 35 career wins, over 500 career strikeouts, 2 World Series appearances and 1 World Series championship. Duffy has been with the Royals since 2011 but lost almost all of 2012 and 2013 due to Tommy John surgery. In 2016, Duffy has put it all together and has shown the baseball world how dominating his stuff can be. His K per 9 rate is almost 10, his walks per 9 rate is below 2 and his WHIP is just over 1.0 all of which have contributed to his gaudy 11-2 win loss record. 2 of his last 3 starts have been subpar and have ‘swelled’ his ERA from the mid-2s to the low 3s. All in all, the Royals and their fans couldn’t have asked for much more than what Duffy has shown them this year. Duffy could quickly get on the path to the Hall if he could make his 2016 pace stick (as well as stay healthy in his prime years). However, I’d need to see more than one season of work like this before I was sold that this is the Danny Duffy to expect from here on out. Hall of Fame chance: 10%.

Alex Gordon: Age 32. Resume: 3 All Star selections, 4 Gold Glove awards, league leader in doubles one time, 2 World Series appearances and 1 World Series championship. Gordon struggled as a Royal in his first four seasons but once he moved from the infield to the outfield, everything seemed to click for him. He’s posted almost 33 career WAR and has established himself as a highly respected outfielder. Gordon did not start compiling significant offensive stats until his age 27 season and at 32 he is going to have a very hard time to make a legitimate case for the Hall. 2016 is shaping up to be a lost season for him which may signal a significant decline in production going forward. Career averages of .265/.431/.777 with 148 homers and 87 steals isn’t going to get it done. He will be remembered fondly by many Royals fans as a core member of their World Series teams but he won’t be in Cooperstown. Hall of Fame chance: 3%.

Kelvin Herrera: Age 26. Resume: 2 All Star selections, 2 World Series appearances and 1 World Series championship. Herrera’s career has been picking up momentum and 2015 and 2016 have seen him begin to build national name recognition. He’s part of KC’s excellent bullpen and as a result, saves for Herrera have been hard to find. Injuries to the pen in 2016 have finally allowed him a shot at the closer role and Herrera appears to be able to handle the job well. However, Herrera appears to no longer be the closer now that Davis has returned to the active roster. Time will tell whether Herrera just raised his stock as a closer on the trade market or whether K.C. plans on reshuffling their stacked pen next year to give him a shot at the job, Herrera needs to begin to lock down some gaudy save totals in the coming years. Adding some dominance to his profile would help his cause as well (2016 is his first season where he has averaged under 2 walks per 9 innings and only the second season he has averaged double digit strikeouts per 9 innings. He is a wild card when trying to predict his ride towards Cooperstown. Hall of Fame chance: 7%.

Eric Hosmer: Age 26. Resume: 3^rd pick of the 2008 draft, 1 All Star selection, 3 Gold Glove awards, 2 World Series appearances and 1 World Series championship. A first baseman that slugs in the mid 700s is going to have a tough time cracking into the top tier of modern day players. Hosmer has been in the bigs since 2011 and has developed a strange up year down year pattern (OPS+ of 118, 81, 118, 99, 122, 103). 2016 is the first year he has cracked 20 homers in a season but overall, the counting stats and career totals through this season (age 26) is just not there. Interestingly, although he has racked up a few Gold Glove awards, the defensive metrics do not like his work at first base (-6 defensive career WAR). Hosmer is going to have to raise his game and pile on the counting stats during his prime for significant Hall of Fame consideration. He’s good, he’s becoming well known nationally, but he doesn’t have a trajectory that’s currently headed for the Hall. Hall of Fame chance: 10%.

Mike Moustakas: Age 27. Resume: 2^nd pick of the 2007 draft, 1 All Star selection, 2 World Series appearances and 1 World Series championship. Moustakas was slow out of the gate and struggled in his first four seasons. After a breakout campaign in 2015, Moustakas was injured early in 2016 and will miss all but 27 games. This is not good for his Hall chances as it removes one year of statistical compiling during a prime year for hitters (age 27) and also slows the developmental curve that he was on. How quickly he can return from injury and whether he is able to maintain or improve on his 2015 form once he returns will determine whether he restarts on a path to Cooperstown or whether he stalls out. Hall of Fame chance: 5%.

Salvador Perez: Age 26. Resume: 4 All Star selections, 2 World Series appearances, 1 World Series championship, World Series MVP award, and 3 Gold Glove awards. Perez has put up a very solid first 6 seasons (4 as a full timer) for the Royals. He is a solid contributor at the bat and behind the plate. His power has developed but his ability to take a walk has not. This combination has yielded a slugging percentage in the 4s but an OPS in the 7s. He is a top all around catcher in the game and has developed into a perennial All-Star. Staying healthy behind the dish can be tough but at age 26, Perez has a few more years to amass stats as a catcher before the wear and tear really takes its toll on his body. Compiling stats as a catcher will go a long way towards his case for Cooperstown. Also, catchers tend to develop their offense a little later than other position players so there is a definite possibility that as Perez moves into his peak age seasons his best is yet to come. Hall of Fame chance: 32%.

Joakim Soria: Age 32. Resume: 2 All Star selections, a career line of 203 saves, 2.70 ERA, and 9.6 Ks per 9 innings. After putting up a few dominant seasons as a closer early in his career, Soria has fallen off the Hall of Fame path. The number one culprit has been the injuries that he’s battled during multiple seasons (even missing all of 2012). Saves have come sporadically depending on the year, the team, his bullpen role, and his health. Too much time lost to injury and no path that leads to regularly save opportunities makes Cooperstown unrealistic. Hall of Fame chance: 1%.

Yordano Ventura: Age 25. Resume: 37 career wins in his 3 seasons as a starter with the Royals, 2 World Series appearances and 1 World Series championship. Ventura is a young starter who has shown flashes of excellence. However, he has also been a lightning rod for controversy (being a part of many bench clearing incidents) and has shown erratic results on the mound. He’s gone from opening day starter to being demoted to the minors in the same season. An concrete statistical example of his erratic play is highlighted by his strikeouts per 9 innings during the past three seasons. Although he has demonstrated high speeds on his fastball his K per 9 has been 7.8, 8.6, and 6.6. Ventura has youth on his side but needs to find a way to harness his intensity. Hall of Fame chance: 10%.

The other profiled teams:

Alkaline Trio – Best Board EVER!

September 11, 20161 Comment

On September 11th, I thought I would just keep the mood light and post a pic or two of my all time favorite skateboard. A homemade Alkaline Trio deck. Keep positive, everyone!

Hall of Fame Crystal Ball – Part VIII (Tigers)

September 5, 20162 Comments

The candidates:

Miguel Cabrera: Age 33. Resume: 2 A.L. Most Valuable Player awards, five Top 5 MVP award finishes, 11 All Star selections, 6 Silver Slugger awards, 2 World Series appearances and 1 World Series Championship. He’s been the league leader in homers twice, doubles twice, RBIs twice, on base percentage, slugging percentage, and batting average four times. Cabrera is now in his 14^th season. For his career he has a .320 average, 436 homers, almost 2,500 hits, a .959 OPS, and a 76 offensive WAR (he has a -14 career defensive WAR). He could stop playing now and enter the hall once eligible. The only thing that would derail his ride would be a performance enhancing drug (PED) suspension. See you in Cooperstown, Mr. Cabrera. Hall of Fame chance: 99%.

Nick Castellanos: Age 24. Resume: 44 career homers. Castellanos hasn’t shown a lot but he has shown flashes. He was having somewhat of a breakout season in 2016 when an injury shelved him. Although 2016 had been fueled by an elevated batting average on balls in play yielding a .285 batting average, his power looks legit. Castellanos is only 24 years old and has time to continue to grow as a player. His batting eye needs to take a giant leap forward as his career walk to strikeout rate is 1 walk for every 4 strikeouts (in his first three full years: 36:140, 39:152, and 26:106). Without a marked improvement, it’s extremely doubtful that any meaningful long term progress will occur. Additionally, the defensive metrics do not like his work in the field (-4.4 defensive WAR for his career) so it will be interesting to see where Castellanos ends up sticking. It will be tough for him to overcome some of this profile but a clearer picture should develop in the next 2 years. Hall of Fame chance: 6%.

Ian Kinsler: Age 34. 4 All Star selections, 2 World Series appearances, over 200 career homers and steals. Kinsler is in his 11^th pro season and has compiled over 51 WAR. He’s shown nice power and speed throughout his career and the defensive metrics like his work at second base. Kinsler would be helped tremendously if the Hall’s voters took his defense into account. However, unless a player is truly special defensively (ex. Ozzie Smith), glove work is typically overlooked. If Kinsler was able to get himself a few World Series rings or put up a few more 20 – 20 seasons without a drop in production in any other key counting category, I could see him having an outside chance at the Hall of Fame. However, at 34 those scenarios seem less likely. Hall of Fame chance: 24%.

J.D. Martinez: Age 29. Resume: 1 All Star selection and 1 Silver Slugger award. Martinez has really turned things around since being released by Houston and signing with Detroit. He retooled his stroke and has become a top power hitter in the game. He’s put up 80 homers since the start of the 2014 season and would have more if not for injuries keeping him out of the line-up. He has been able to maintain a consistently solid batting average since the start of ‘14 even though he’s struggled with his walk and strikeout ratios. His on base percentage would look a lot better if he’d walk more and this would likely lead to more opportunities to compile stats like runs (in addition to strengthening his percentages/averages). Martinez’s career may play out in a similar fashion to Jose Bautista. They both struggled at first and then started to significantly compile power statistics in their late 20’s. Martinez will need to have a prolonged peak as a power threat and hone his batting eye in order to maintain and/or grow his batting average, OBP, and OPS. He’ll also have to stay healthy because he has some catching up to do in regards to his home run total. His final homerun tally will determine whether he is a viable Hall candidate or not. Hall of Fame chance: 20%.

Victor Martinez: Age 37. Resume: 5 All Star selections, 2 Silver Slugger awards, one Top 5 MVP award finish. He has led the league in OBP and OPS one time and has 7 seasons of 20 or more homers. Martinez sports career numbers of 223 homers and a .302 batting average, .366 OBP, and .835 OPS. He has a career offensive WAR of almost 39 (the defensive metrics do not like his glove work as indicated by his -6.4 career defensive WAR). Martinez controls the strike zone very well and he seems to get better with age. However, at 37, time is running out. Injuries robbed him of significant time in 2008 and the entire 2012 season. He played hurt for most of 2015 and put up his worst season. These injury filled seasons hurt him in his quest to compile numbers making his case for the Hall difficult. In addition, Martinez would have a stronger case if his career numbers came as an everyday catcher. However, as a designated hitter with a few games at first base thrown in (he hasn’t caught more than 20 games since 2011) his battle is more than an uphill one. Hall of Fame chance: 10%.

Francisco Rodriguez: Age 34. Resume – 6 All Star selections, three Top 5 Cy Young award finishes, 1 World Series Championship, 423 total saves (1^st active/5^th all time), career average of over 10 Ks per 9 innings, and single season saves leader (62). K Rod has led the league in saves three times, games finished three times, and appearances one time. He burst onto the scene as a rookie with the Angels and although he is well traveled and has had his share of negative publicity due to poor behavioral choices he continues to compile saves. Tales of his demise have been greatly exaggerated as he learned to pitch with diminished velocity. He needs to stick around for a few more years, remain a closer and pile on to his already impressive save total, and stay out of trouble if he is going to have a legitimate case for the Hall. Another World Series title as a closer would help him tremendously as well. Hall of Fame chance: 33%.

Justin Upton: Age 29. Resume: 3 All Star Selections, 1 Top 5 MVP award finish, and 2 Silver Slugger awards. This is Upton’s 10^th pro season. He has two 20-20 seasons, over 200 homers, over 120 steals, and 25 career WAR. He strikes out a lot and doesn’t take many walks, thus his OPB suffers. Additionally, his batting eye negatively impacts his ability to hit for average as well. For years he was touted as the next big thing and although he flirted with greatness he has been unable to gain any real traction as one of the game’s best players. At age 29, things are likely as good as they are going to get for him. Unfortunately for him, his work is not a Hall of Fame resume. Hall of Fame chance: 10%.

Justin Verlander: Age 33. Resume: A.L. Rookie of the Year, 1 A.L. MVP award, 1 Cy Young award and another three Top 5 Cy Young award finishes, 6 All Star selections, and 2 World Series appearances. Verlander has 171 wins and 48.5 WAR in his 12 years of pitching and has led the league in wins twice. He has also led the league in ERA once, strikeouts 3 times (5^th place for active pitchers/63^rd all-time in strikeouts), WHIP once (leader in 2016 as well), and innings pitched 3 times (leader in 2016 as well). Verlander had extreme velocity and stamina for a while but after a rough stretch he needed to rethink his approach (reports indicate that he has also begun to read more scouting reports on hitters rather than just relying on his pitching ability). During his rough stretch, there were questions as to whether he would ever be an effective starter again. His performance (especially throughout 2016) has quieted his critics. If he hadn’t shown the improved results that he’s consistently demonstrated his Hall of Fame case would have likely fallen short. However, Verlander has a solid case for induction if he is able to maintain his current level of success for a few more years. Important to consider when viewing the likelihood of his entry into the Hall of Fame – Verlander has gone to the World Series twice with the Tigers and has fared poorly in both 2006 and 2012. Although his performance is based on only a few starts it will be interesting to see if the writers hold that against him when voting. Hall of Fame chance: 38%.

Jordan Zimmermann: Age 30. Resume: 2 All Star selections and 1 Top 5 Cy Young award finish. He has led the league in wins once, shutouts once, games started once, and walks per 9 innings once. He has also thrown one no hitter. This is his first year with the Tigers and although he started strong he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Zimmermann has already had one Tommy John procedure which may make it difficult for him to stay effective and healthy over the long term. Overall, Zimmermann is often solid, yet not dominant (7.3 Ks per 9 for his career). After 8 big league seasons, Zimmermann is not putting up enough counting stats or building a reputation within the sport as a game changer. To have any real chance at the Hall, Zimmermann is going to have to stay healthy and get a little lucky. Hall of Fame chance: 9%.

* Daniel Norris: Age 23. Although he has been up for parts of three seasons (27 appearances – 22 of them starts), he has not pitched enough in any one season to make a thoughtful projection at this time.

Other AL Central analysis:

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